长三角地区经济增长与环境污染再研究——基于分位数回归方法

运用刻画不同区段边际变化影响的分位数回归方法,对长三角地区经济增长与废水排放关系进行实证检验,得出以下结论:1)长三角地区废水染排放与经济发展呈现同步递增关系,环境库兹涅茨倒U关系在长三角地区并不成立;2)分位数回归分析表明,高收入水平对应相对低的边际排放,随着收入增加长三角地区废水排放增速放缓;3)产业结构、城市化、技术水平等对废水排放的影响随分位点增加呈现递减趋向。     

基于劳动力测度指标对我国延迟退休制度理性分析

延迟退休已成为国际趋势。近年来,随着我国人口老龄化问题的进一步加剧与计划生育政策的持续实施,我国经济活动人口规模增速减缓,国家支付养老金压力增大。延迟退休问题已成为社会各界关注的热点问题,该政策实施也一波三折。基于劳动力测度指标,如劳动力参与率、老龄人口与就业人口之比、抚养比等为参考依据,得出了目前我国实施的退休年龄制度已不符合劳动力市场的发展趋势的要求,从而理性得出延迟退休年龄势在必行。     

国际小额信贷模式运作机制比较研究

国际上公认有成效的四种小额信贷模式在贷款抵押、利率形式及目标客户的选择等运作机制设计上存在差异.通过比较发现以连带责任替代抵押担保、以市场化利率取代贴息利率及采用动态贷款激励是这些模式取得高还款率和绩效的关键.为使小额信贷能在新农村建设中发挥作用,我国应建立以农村信用社为基础、市场化运作的小额信贷模式,把联保机制引入农村经济组织及实施差别利率,实现小额信贷财务持续性、服务穷人与社会效益的平衡发展,最终缓解或消除贫困.     

Export diversification and real exchange rate in emerging Latin America and Asia: A South–North vs. South-South decomposition

The present paper examines the directional causality between export diversification and real exchange rate in the middle-income countries of Asia and Latin America over the period from 1995 to 2013. Additionally, we investigate asymmetries in the causality issue by examining the direction across trading partners.

Our empirical results show that there is a two-way causality between the two variables when we look at the sample as a whole. A causal link running from the real exchange rate to export diversification is consistent with the standard literature but it is not systematic at all. The reverse causation is very appealing and challenges the standard argument on exchange rate determination. When the causality issue is investigated by treating export markets differently, our findings at the aggregate level are confirmed in exports destined for the advanced countries. The analysis for ‘South-South’ trade only shows a unidirectional link from the real exchange rate to changes in export diversification. The same tests performed at the individual countries level reveal a heterogeneous causality across trading partners.     

国际资本流动对我国就业影响的均衡分析

文章通过建立一个劳动力市场与资本市场的均衡模型,对国际资本不流动与国际资本不完全自由流动两种情况下的分析表明,国际资本流动加剧了国内劳动力市场的就业风险,并且国际资本流动对就业水平影响与本国资本市场的开放度有关,增加开放度有利于提高本国的就业水平.我国应在采取有效措施减小国内劳动者就业波动的同时,逐渐提高资本市场的开放度.     

DIFFUSION MODELS FOR EXCHANGE RATES IN A TARGET ZONE

We present two analytically tractable diffusion models for an exchange rate in a target zone. One model generalizes a model proposed by De Jong, Drost, and Werker (2001) to allow asymmetry between the currencies which is often an important feature of data. Estimation of the model parameters by the method of Kessler and Sørensen (1999) using eigenfunctions of the generator is investigated and shown to give well-behaved estimators that are easy to calculate. The method is well suited to the models because the eigenfunctions are known so that explicit estimating functions are obtained, and because the state space is a finite interval, for which it is known that the method can be made arbitrarily efficient by including sufficiently many eigenfunctions. The model fits data on exchange rates in the European Monetary System well. In particular, the asymmetry parameter is significantly different from zero for three out of four currencies. An alternative diffusion model is presented with similarly nice properties, but with different dynamics that allow constant volatility near the boundaries of the target zone. No-arbitrage pricing of derivative assets is considered, and the effect of realignments is briefly discussed.     

我国纺织品出口对经济增长贡献的实证研究

出口贸易是影响经济增长的重要因素。本文采用1980-2004年的数据,描述了我国纺织品出口的特点,并借助协整模型实证研究了纺织品出口对经济增长的影响,指出二者之间存在长期的动态关系。通过定量分析,发现纺织品出口对经济增长的直接拉动度和贡献率都较低,这是因为我国纺织服装行业一方面受宏观环境影响,另一方面自身竞争优势不足。本文经过研究,形成了对我国纺织品出口与经济增长之间关系直观而清晰的认识,并为无配额时代我国纺织业发展的后续研究提供了参考。     

人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的实证研究

基于均衡汇率理论,应用协整模型,采用真实变量分析了1980-2003年的人民币实际汇率及其与均衡汇率的失调情况,进而研究了不同时期人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的关系。结果表明:贸易条件与中长期以及短期的实际汇率存在显著的关系,贸易条件的恶化或改善是导致人民币实际汇率升值或贬值的重要原因之一。并且,在不同的发展时期,贸易条件对实际汇率的影响呈现出不同的特点。     

提高科技型中小企业创业成功率的关键——创业选择

多数科技型中小企业寿命很短,人们往往从外部环境或内部经营方面来找原因,其实导致科技型中小企业成功率低的根本原因在于创业初期的三方面选择,即行业选择,创办模式与制度选择,创新战略的选择。只有初期选择正确,中小企业才能健康快速成长。